The Hindsight Bias On the problem of ex ante knowledge in negligence assessment ex post
Abstract: Judging negligence correctly is notoriously difficult once a catastrophic result is known to the individual making the judgement. Due to a phenomenon called hindsight bias, the events leading up to a specific outcome seem significantly more self-evident in hindsight than they did moving forward in time. In a forensic setting, judges are expected by law to ponder foreseeability ex ante, even though the result is presented in the file. Not only are legal practitioners typically unaware of the hindsight bias; disappointingly, empirical research suggests that even warning them of it does little to circumvent its effects.
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